Trump is claiming there will be a vaccine before the end of the year, AND that there will soon be a therapeutic available that cures Covid-19 within days. This is what he said during his August 10th press conference:
I think we’ll be making tremendous progress over the next period of a few months and certainly before the end of the year. I think we’ll have a vaccine before the end of the year, very substantially. And we may have a therapeutic resolvement very quickly. Very, very quickly. And frankly, that’s the one I’d rather have faster because you’d go in, you’d give a transfusion or a shot to people that are very ill, and they’d be able to come out of the hospital the next day or a few days later.President Trump on August 10th, 2020
Really? That would be very good news. The kind of good news that would be on the front of every newspaper in the world, the top story for every news broadcast, and on the lips of every public health official at every presser. Why are we not hearing about this advancement everywhere?
It is because, as usual, Trump is lying.
Vaccines are not developed overnight, and there has never even been a vaccine developed for a coronavirus before. Normally, it takes 10 to 15 years for a vaccine to be ready to administer to the public.
Not every virus will have a vaccine developed. Scientists have been trying to develop an HIV vaccine since the 1980s, but they haven’t managed to do it yet.
Most experts believe that a vaccine may become available sometime in mid 2021, but really, that is optimistic. If one is ready in 2021, it will be the speediest vaccine ever.
If a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine is developed by 2021, there is still the problem of manufacturing all those doses. The world will require BILLIONS of doses and that will take time to manufacture and distribute. Just wait until the arguments start about who gets first access to these vaccines.
Trump doesn’t just mislead Americans about when and if a vaccine will be available, but he does not tell the truth about the numbers of people effected by Covid-19, either.
Latin America is suffering the worst when it comes to Covid-19 deaths per capita, but Trump lied when he said that the U.S. was doing better than the U.K. on ‘deaths’. The U.S. has experienced 1.55 deaths per million people, while the U.K. is sitting at 0.12 deaths per million. Of course, we also know that the U.S. has suffered 200,000 extra deaths since the pandemic began. While the U.K. has been hit hard, the U.S. is doing far worse.
When Trump made the claim that the U.S Covid-19 survival rate is better than the U.K., he was depending on the ‘case fatality rate’–probably–which is considered unreliable. While the case fatality rate for the U.S. is 3.2%, it is 15% in the U.K. That sounds huge, except the number is dependent upon how many cases have been confirmed. The number of confirmed cases does not tell us how many people have actually been infected. It simply tells us how many people we KNOW are infected.
Everyone laughs when Trump says that testing leads to more cases. No, the tests do not CAUSE the coronavirus, but it is rather sinister that Trump understands that NOT TESTING is a way to hide how many cases are truly out there.
Trump is clearly knows that the U.S. population is well saturated with Covid-19, but he seems to have a hunch that India or Brazil might be worse. He is right, they might be worse, but there is no reliable testing data for Brazil and India likely has less capacity to test due to their large population and severe social inequality.
The U.S. is finding one confirmed case of Covid-19 per every 12 tests performed. Compare that to the U.K. that is getting one confirmed case per every 35 tests performed. “That is because we test more”, Trump claims, but that is not the way it works.
The U.S. and the U.K. are not that far apart in testing. Cumulatively, the U.S. test rate is 186.68 per 1000 people, while the U.K’s test rate is 157.67. The UK is testing a little bit less, but compare that to India that only tests 17.81 people per 1000. The U.K has also caught up to the U.S. as the latest 7 day test rate is 2.15 per 1000 for the U.S. and 2.13 per 1000 for the U.K..
Are your eyes crossed from all these statistics? Ours too! Here is what you REALLY need to know:
Countries that do very few tests per confirmed case are unlikely to be testing widely enough to find all cases. The WHO has suggested a positive rate lower than 10% – but better lower than 3% – as a general benchmark of adequate testingOurworldindata.org
The U.S. positive rate is 7.6%. Compare that to the U.K. at 0.6%, Norway at 0.7%, Germany at 0.8%, Italy at 1.3%, Canada at 1%, Cuba at 0.8%, South Korea at 0.5% or Australia at 0.7%.
When it comes to testing, the U.S. is performing worse against every western industrialized nation.
Additionally, the U.S has over 15.2 thousand cases of Covid-19 per million people. That is the worst in the world excepting Chile where there are 19.5 thousand cases per million people.
You decide how good a job the Trump Administration is doing in managing the pandemic. We all know what’s really on Trump’s mind:
“Based on all of the many things accomplished during the first 3 1/2 years, perhaps more than any other Presidency, sounds like a good idea to me!”Trump on having his face carved into Mount Rushmore.