Another 10,000 to 30,000 Americans will die from Covid-19 in the next month

Another 10,000 to 30,000 Americans will die from Covid-19 in the next month

Trump is seriously fumbling his response to the global pandemic. We all know this. We have been watching the whole time. We heard him say the virus was completely under control and the cases would be down to zero within a few days. Of course, that was soon judged to be a pipe dream.

“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” 


Then we watched every one of those daily Coronavirus Taskforce Committee briefings, where the scientists would say one thing, and then Trump would say another.

We witnessed major corporations praised for accepting large government contracts to produce medical supplies. How philanthropic of them!

We have had hydroxychloroquinewhateveritis shoved down our throats.

We saw Trump mobilize medical services like setting up temporary hospitals and facilitating test sites. They remained mostly unused.

Trump seemed enthusiastic about thwarting the spread of Covid-19 until that fateful day when he foolishly suggested that disinfectant and strong UV light could kill the virus.

Flawless Trump cure for COVID-19 : PoliticalHumor
“Oh yeah, that will get people to stop thinking about Covid deaths”, said Trump. Probably.

It was within days that Trump changed course. Apparently, this coronavirus thing wasn’t working for him anymore. People were laughing, and dying, and mad at Trump while they died. The economy was tanking. Some of his supporters were spreading conspiracy theories.

Coronavirus was making him look bad and this greatly concerned Trump. We know that this greatly concerned Trump because he has no inside voice and told us clearly that we were not appreciative enough of his efforts.

So, he rolled back testing, decided to sacrifice your Grandma to the God of Filthy Lucre, and started to shift responsibility away from himself.

How do we know this? Again, Trump has no inside voice and he told everyone.

“So, I said to my people, slow the testing down”


That’s right, Trump bragged that he slowed the testing down.

Despite Trump’s aides and his team of sycophantic pundits attempting to perform damage control by claiming that Trump was joking, Trump doubled down and confirmed that he does not kid. There was no joke.

Deaths and illness from Covid-19 are not funny, but there is a joke here. The joke is that scientists do not need to increase individual testing to discover how many citizens have been infected. These numbers are easy to figure out by drawing a small random sample from regional populations. We can also make inferences based on the numbers of fatalities that occur, given what we know about Covid-19 fatality rates from around the world. For example, if the global Covid-19 death rate is somewhere between 1% and 5%, we can infer that the U.S. death rate from Covid-19 is similar.

Trump, who is willfully uneducated on almost any topic, is relying on his base to be the same. You can be sure that every single morning, Trump is updated with an estimate of how many people are reasonably believed to have been infected by Covid-19.

These daily updates of data to Trump would be WHY he is so upset. He knows that other countries are not testing on purpose, or simply because they do not have the resources to test. Those countries also know how many cases they have, more or less, and so does Trump because he will be briefed on those countries as well. Again, inferences are made based on how many people actually die from Covid-19 on any given day. Random samples are drawn from the population and given Covid-19 tests.

As it stands, the US now has over 2.4 million confirmed cases of Covid-19. Over 122,000 Americans have died.

3 months ago, the US already had the fastest growth rate on Covid-19 cases in the world.

Nearing the end of June, the rate of infection has not slowed. The U.S. is experiencing over 30,000 new Covid-19 infections every day, and around 1000 people die from Covid-19 each day.

In the next month, the CDC is projecting that the total number of U.S. Covid-19 deaths will rise to between 130,000 and 150,000 people. That is another 10,000 to 30,000 people dead in a single month.

National forecast as of 6/22/2020
All the models show a similar trajectory. Even the best case scenario is bad.
This is the man who is leading the Coronavirus response. Your life is in danger and he is making misogynistic jokes about women.

If you make it to November, make you sure you vote.

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